Talking Points
AUDCHF outside reversal day / rebound off 2014 trendline support
Weekly opening range breach takes pair into key inflection level
Event risk on tap this week
AUD/CHF Daily Chart
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
AUDCHF responds to 2014 trendline support / outside reversal day– bullish
Resistance at 8350/60- scalp bias bearish invalidation
Breach targets resistance objectives at 8450, 8500/11 & 8545
Support at 8267/70- bullish invalidation
Break targets support objectives at 8202/30 & 8111/15
Daily RSI divergence on a hold above 40 threshold- constructive
Event Risk Ahead: China Manufacturing PMI & Australian Retail Sales tonight and Australian Trade Balance & Building Approvals on Wednesday
AUD/CHF 30min Chart
Notes: Back on September 11th we highlighted a key inflection zone in the AUDCHF at 8499-8511 while noting that, “a daily close below keeps the focus weighted to the short-side of the trade with support objectives seen lower at the 100-day moving average (~8400) and 8350/60.” The pair has since taken out both profit objectives before rebounding off a trendline support dating back to the 2014 low. A break of the initial weekly opening range high today and a key outside day reversal candle has shifted our near-term focus back to the topside.
The pair now stands just below the 8350/60 inflection zone and we will use this level as our near-term bearish invalidation level. Bottom line: looking to buy pullbacks while above the 2014 trendline support with only a break below this week’s opening range low at 8267/71 invalidating our directional bias. Caution is warranted on this pair heading into the close of the month/quarter with event risk out of Australia & China tonight likely to fuel added volatility in Aussie crosses. Follow the progress of trade setups like these and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Key Threshold Grid
Entry/Exit Targets
Timeframe
Level
Technical Relevance
Bearish Invalidation
Daily / 30min
8351/61
38.2% & 61.8% Retracement(s)
Break Target 1
30min
8382
23.6% Retracement
Break Target 2
30min
8407
100% Extension August High
Break Target 3
Daily / 30min
8430
Soft Resistance / Monthly S1 Pivot (8438)
Break Target 4
30min
8450
38.2% Retracement
Break Target 5
Daily / 30min
8500/11
23.6 & 76.4% Retrace(s) / Monthly Central Pivot
Support Target 1
30min
8335
Initial Weekly ORH
Support Target 2
30min
8307
Soft Support / Pivot
Bullish Invalidation
Daily / 30min
8267/71
Sept Low / 1.618% Extension / TL Support
Break Target 1
Daily / 30min
8232/42
50% Retrace / 200DMA
Break Target 2
Daily / 30min
8203
January High
Break Target 3
Daily / 30min
8111/15
April, May Lows / 61.8% Retrace / S3 Monthly
Break Target 4
Daily
8040/47
March Swing High / 2.618% Extension
Average True Range
Daily (20)
87
Profit Targets 20-22pips
*ORH: Opening Range High
*ORL: Opening Range Low
Other Setups in Play:
Scalping the NZDJPY Breakdown
GBPUSD Range in Focus- Scalps Target Key Inflection Zone at 1.6253
Scalping The EURAUD Breakout- Longs Favored Above 1.4353
GBPAUD Rally Stalls at Key Resistance – Long Scalps at Risk Sub 1.8444
AUDNZD Scalps Targets Key Inflection Range – 1.1020 Critical Support
AUDJPY Outside Reversal Day- Scalps Favor Buying Dips Above 96.38
EURUSD Short Bias at Risk Ahead of FOMC- 1.29 Bullish Invalidation
—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
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Source: Daily fx
