Talking Points:
– NZD/USD Retail FX Remains Net-Short Ahead of RBNZ.
– USDOLLAR Threatens Key Support Ahead of 1Q GDP, Fed Interest Rate Decision.
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NZD/USD
Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
NZD/USD continues to threaten the downward trend carried over from October as the bullish RSI momentum gathers pace; close above 0.7730 (78.6% retracement) may open up the 2015 high (0.7888).
Even though the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to keep the cash rate at 3.50%, the fresh batch of commentary from Governor Graeme Wheeler may dampen the appeal of the higher-yielding currency should the central bank head toughen the verbal intervention on the kiwi.
Nevertheless, DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-short NZD/USD since April 27, with the ratio currently sitting at -1.54.
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Read More:
AUDJPY Breakout Scalps Target 200 DMA Ahead of BoJ, China PMI
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USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):
Index
Last
High
Low
Daily Change (%)
Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index
11823.55
11902.58
11819.46
-0.61
114.09%
Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar holds February low (11,736) as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) stays on course to normalize monetary policy & anticipates a stronger recovery later this year.
Seems as though the Fed is buying more time amid the weakness in the first-quarter GDP figure, but the ongoing series of lower highs & lows in price raises the risk for a further decline in the greenback.
Failed attempts to break/close below 11,721 (38.2% retracement) to 11,745 (50.0% retracement) may produce a near-term bound in USDOLLAR, but the downside remains favorable as long as the bearish RSI momentum remains in play.Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!
Release
GMT
Expected
Actual
MBA Mortgage Applications (APR 24)
11:00
—
Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (QoQ) (1Q A)
12:30
1.0%
0.2%
Personal Consumption (1Q A)
12:30
1.7%
1.9%
GDP Price Index (1Q A)
12:30
0.5%
-0.1%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) (1Q A)
12:30
1.0%
0.9%
Pending Home Sales (MoM) (MAR)
10:00
1.0%
1.1%
Pending Home Sales n.s.a. (YoY) (MAR)
10:00
5.1%
13.4%
Federal Open Market Committee Interest Rate Decision
16:00
0.25%
0.25%
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— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.
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Source: Daily fx
