GBPUSD Daily Chart
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
Breach of the 1.54-barrier noted last week has maintained a bullish outlook
Topside objective now in view at 1.5586 (50% Retrace of 2013 range) – Breech threatens 1.5680
Confluence with current operative channel resistance points to possible pivot tomorrow/late this week
Decline off the yearly high points to a 2 1/2 month cycle- brings into focus May 14th calendar date- May opening range to offer clarity on medium-term biases
Looking for extremely nimble intra-day longs, with rallies offering favorable short entries sub-1.5586
RSI trendline trigger break to offer conviction on short scalps
Working on 5th consecutive daily rally- Similar to price action seen 9/17 before turning over
Break below 1.5407 (on a close basis) invalidates bullish bias- offers conviction on short scalps
Main events to watch this week: US NFP print on Friday
GBPUSD Scalp Chart
Scalp Notes: Bottom Line: Still likely to see a run-up into 1.5585 to satisfy a 50% retracement of the entire 2013 range- Breech and close above this would be bullish. Strong GDP data has kept the pound afloat but could start to fizzle ahead this key level. Attempting intra-day shorts against this threshold with RSI conviction- Look to Friday’s NFP print to charge some volatility as well with the May opening range likely to be very telling as we head into next week. The 30min RSI signature has been constructive since the start of the week, with only a break below the 40-threshold and a move sub 1.5407 green-lighting our bearish bias. Such a scenario eyes a move back into the key support region noted last week at 1.5188-1.5265.
*We will remain flexible with our bias with a break below 1.54 eyeing subsequent support targets. It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases. Use this app to distinguish the various trade sessions.
Key Threshold Grid
Entry/Exit Targets
Timeframe
Level
Significance
Resistance Target 1
30min
1.5556
61.8 Fib Extension
Bearish Invalidation
Daily
1.5585
50% Retracement
Break Target 1
30min
1.5630
Soft Resistance / Pivot
Break Target 2
30min
1.5650
78.6% Fib Ext
Break Target 3
Daily
1.5680
38.2% 09′ Retrace
Break Target 5
Daily
1.5750/60
61.8% Retrace/200DMA
Support Target 1
30min
1.5520
Soft Support / Pivot
Support Target 3
30min
1.5485
50% Fib Ext
Support Target 2
30min
1.5445
Soft Support / Pivot
Bullish Invalidation
Daily / 30min
1.5407-1.5417
38.2% Retrce/38.2% Ext
Break Target 1
30min
1.5370
Soft Support / Pivot
Break Target 2
30min
1.5332
23.6% Retracement
Break Target 3
30min
1.5300
Big Figure/ Soft Pivot
Break Target 4
30min
1.5270
Soft Support
Average True Range
Daily
107
Profit Targets 24-26pips
For updates on this scalp and more setups attend Michael’s Scalp Webinars or follow him on Twitter @MBForex
—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
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