Talking Points:
NZ Dollar Soars on Business Confidence Print, Yen Gains as Stocks Drop
Euro May Decline if Regional CPI Release Follows Germany’s Example
US Dollar May Find Strength in Home Sales, Consumer Confidence Data
The New Zealand Dollar surged after a firm set of Business Confidence figures from ANZ. The sentiment index soared to the highest level since March 1994. The Kiwi’s surge higher tracked a jump in front-end New Zealand bond yields, suggesting traders interpreted the chipper outcome to suggest the RBNZ will move ahead with plans to begin raising interest rates. Priced-in expectations put the probability of a 25bps increase in the benchmark lending rate at the March 12 policy meeting at 96 percent, according to data from Credit Suisse. The Japanese Yen likewise advanced as the Nikkei 225 stock index declined, boosting demand for the safe-haven currency.
February’s preliminary Eurozone CPI figure headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. Expectations call for a slight downtick that takes the headline year-on-year inflation rate to 0.7 percent, matching the 47-month low recorded in October. We presented the possibility of a downside surprise in our discussion of Germany’s analogous report yesterday and saw that speculation validated. A similarly soft print on the region-wide figure threatens to apply downward pressure on the Euro as investors ponder the likelihood that deepening disinflation will prompt the ECB to expand monetary stimulus efforts, perhaps as soon as next week when Mario Draghi and company hold sit down for their monthly policy meeting.
Later in the day, the spotlight turns to January’s USPending Home Sales data and the final revision of February’s University of Michigan Consumer Confidence gauge. An upbeat surprise on the New Home Sales print sent the US Dollar sharply higher earlier in the week and a similar outcome seems likely if the former release follows suit. The latter figure’s preliminary release showed confidence held steady in February, which notably diverged from the Conference Board’s equivalent measure that pointed to deterioration. A revision lower may thus have less of an impact in that will offer something already somewhat suspected, but an upside surprise or even an in-line result may generate a boost for the greenback.
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Asia Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
21:45
NZD
Building Permits (MoM) (JAN)
-8.3%
-3.5%
7.1%
23:15
JPY
Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI (FEB)
55.5
–
56.6
23:30
JPY
National CPI (YoY) (JAN)
1.4%
1.3%
1.6%
23:30
JPY
National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JAN)
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
23:30
JPY
National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JAN)
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
23:30
JPY
Tokyo CPI (YoY) (FEB)
1.1%
1.0%
0.7%
23:30
JPY
Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (FEB)
0.9%
0.8%
0.7%
23:30
JPY
Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (FEB)
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
23:30
JPY
Household Spending (YoY) (JAN)
1.1%
0.5%
0.7%
23:30
JPY
Jobless Rate (JAN)
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
23:30
JPY
Job-To-Applicant Ratio (JAN)
1.04
1.04
1.03
23:50
JPY
Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (JAN)
1.4%
1.3%
-1.2%
23:50
JPY
Retail Trade (YoY) (JAN)
4.4%
3.8%
2.5%
23:50
JPY
Large Retailers’ Sales (JAN)
0.1%
1.0%
0.2%
23:50
JPY
Industrial Production (MoM) (JAN P)
4.0%
2.8%
0.9%
23:50
JPY
Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN P)
10.6%
9.4%
7.1%
0:00
NZD
ANZ Activity Outlook (FEB)
58.5
–
53.5
0:00
NZD
ANZ Business Confidence (FEB)
70.8
–
64.1
0:05
GBP
GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (FEB)
-7
-7
-7
0:30
AUD
Private Sector Credit (MoM) (JAN)
0.4%
0.5%
0.5%
0:30
AUD
Private Sector Credit (YoY) (JAN)
4.1%
4.1%
3.9%
2:00
NZD
Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JAN)
7.0%
–
5.8%
4:00
JPY
Vehicle Production (YoY) (JAN)
14.5%
–
12.2%
5:00
JPY
Housing Starts (YoY) (JAN)
12.3%
15.0%
18.0%
5:00
JPY
Annualized Housing Starts (JAN)
0.987M
1.012M
1.055M
5:00
JPY
Construction Orders (YoY) (JAN)
15.2%
–
4.9%
European Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP/ACT
PREV
IMPACT
7:00
EUR
German Retail Sales (YoY) (JAN)
0.9% (A)
-1.5%
Medium
7:00
EUR
German Retail Sales (MoM) (JAN)
2.5% (A)
-2.1%
Medium
7:00
GBP
Nationwide House Prices (YoY) (FEB)
9.4% (A)
8.8%
Low
7:00
GBP
Nationwide House Prices (MoM) (FEB)
0.6% (A)
0.8%
Low
8:00
CHF
KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (FEB)
2.03 (A)
2.01
Medium
9:00
EUR
Italian Unemployment Rate (JAN P)
12.9% (A)
12.7%
Low
9:00
EUR
Italian Unemployment Rate (4Q)
12.6% (A)
12.3%
Low
10:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (JAN)
12.0%
12.0%
Medium
10:00
EUR
Euro-Zone CPI – Core (YoY) (FEB A)
0.8%
0.8%
High
10:00
EUR
Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) (FEB)
0.7%
0.7%
High
Critical Levels
CCY
Supp 3
Supp 2
Supp 1
Pivot Point
Res 1
Res 2
Res 3
EUR/USD
1.3525
1.3609
1.3660
1.3693
1.3744
1.3777
1.3861
GBP/USD
1.6504
1.6586
1.6637
1.6668
1.6719
1.6750
1.6832
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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