The Euro may fall as slowing inflation boosts ECB easing expectations while the Dollar may recover as S&P 500 futures point to risk aversion into the week-end.

Talking Points

Euro May See Selling Pressure as Eurozone CPI Drop Drives ECB Easing Bets
S&P 500 Futures Point to Risk Aversion, Hinting US Dollar May Bounce Ahead
Yen Sold as Japanese Industrial Production Grows, Cabinet Passes Stimulus

The preliminary estimate of November’s Eurozone CPIreading headlines the calendar in European hours. Expectations call for the headline inflation rate to drop to 2.4 percent, the lowest in four months. The outcome may weigh on the Euro as forex traders take softening price pressure to mean the ECB has added room for further easing amid signs of deepening recessionin the wake of deteriorating economic data (particularly the recent run of region-wide PMI figures).

On the sentiment front, S&P 500 futures are pointing lower to warn a risk-off mood may prevail through the end of the trading week, boosting the safety-linked US Dollar against most of its counterparts. Chatter from the sidelines of US “fiscal cliff” negotiations remains critical. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates the spending cuts and tax hikes to be triggered at the turn of the year will tip the US into recession. This makes securing a deal to avoid the “cliff” critical to underpin risk appetite in an environment where traders are depending on recovery in the world’s top economy to offset headwinds from Europe and China.

The Japanese Yen underperformed in overnight trade, down against all of its major counterparts, as a rally in Asian stocks eroded demand for the haven currency. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark index added 0.5 percent after Japan’s cabinet approved a second fiscal stimulus package worth ¥880 billion and Industrial Production unexpectedly rose in October, adding 1.8 percent. Economists expected output shrink 2 percent. The result marked the largest increase in 10 months.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

21:45

NZD

Building Permits (MoM) (OCT)

-1.5%

0.0%

7.6% (R-)

23:15

JPY

Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI (NOV)

46.5

–

46.9

23:30

JPY

Jobless Rate (OCT)

4.2%