Talking Points:
Euro May Look Past October’s Flash EZ CPI on Limited ECB Implications
NZ Dollar Down as Building Permits Slump Undercuts RBNZ Rate Hike Bets
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October’s preliminary Eurozone CPI reading headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. Expectations call for a print at 0.4 percent on the benchmark year-on-year inflation rate, marking a slight improvement after the five-year low of 0.3 percent recorded in August and maintained in September. The outcome may not yield a meaningful response from the Euro absent a wild deviation from consensus forecasts considering its limited implications for the near-term trajectory of ECB monetary policy.
Indeed, Mario Draghi and company are still in the implementation phase of a medley of stimulus efforts and will likely want to see how things progress for some time after everything is in place. That means additional easing probably will not materialize at least until next year, putting the central bank on auto-pilot in the interim. We remain short EURUSD.
The US Dollar outperformed in overnight trade in a move that probably reflected follow-on from a strong set of third-quarter US GDP figures released earlier in the day. The upbeat report reinforced a comparatively hawkish FOMC policy announcement earlier in the week, helping to scatter speculation that the Fed will delay raising interest rates until 2016 having concluded its QE3 stimulus program.
The New Zealand Dollar was weakest on the session after a report showed Building Permits unexpectedly tumbled 12.2 percent in September, marking the largest drop in over two years. The result likely reinforced perceptions that a buoyant housing market will pressure the RBNZ to raise rates in the near-term. The Japanese Yen also traded lower as the US GDP figure lifted Asian equities amid hopes for stronger export demand and undermined the appeal of the safety-linked currency.
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Asia Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
21:45
NZD
Building Permits (MoM) (SEP)
-12.2%
1.0%
-0.8%
23:30
JPY
National CPI (YoY) (SEP)
3.2%
3.3%
3.3%
23:30
JPY
National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (SEP)
3.0%
3.0%
3.1%
23:30
JPY
National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (SEP)
3.0%
2.2%
2.3%
23:30
JPY
Tokyo CPI (YoY) (OCT)
2.5%
2.7%
2.8%
23:30
JPY
Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (OCT)
2.5%
2.5%
2.6%
23:30
JPY
Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (OCT)
2.1%
2.0%
2.0%
23:30
JPY
Jobless Rate (SEP)
3.6%
3.6%
3.5%
23:30
JPY
Job-To-Applicant Ratio (SEP)
1.1
1.1
1.1
23:30
JPY
Household Spending (YoY) (SEP)
-5.6%
-4.3%
-4.7%
0:05
GBP
GfK Consumer Confidence (OCT)
-2
-1
-1
0:30
AUD
Producer Price Index (QoQ) (3Q)
0.2%
–
-0.1%
0:30
AUD
Producer Price Index (YoY) (3Q)
1.2%
–
2.3%
0:30
AUD
Private Sector Credit (MoM) (SEP)
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0:30
AUD
Private Sector Credit (YoY) (SEP)
5.4%
5.3%
5.1%
2:00
NZD
Money Supply M3 (YoY) (SEP)
5.3%
–
5.2%
JPY
BOJ 2014 Monetary Base Target
¥270T
¥270T
5:00
JPY
Housing Starts (YoY) (SEP)
-17.2%
-12.5%
5:00
JPY
Construction Orders (YoY) (SEP)
–
8.6%
5:00
JPY
Annualized Housing Starts (SEP)
0.848M
0.845M
European Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP
PREV
IMPACT
6:30
CHF
SNB Earnings (3Q)
–
–
Low
7:00
EUR
German Retail Sales (YoY)
1.2%
0.1%
Medium
7:00
EUR
German Retail Sales (MoM)
-0.9%
1.5%
Medium
8:00
CHF
SNB Releases 3Q Currency Allocation
–
–
Low
8:00
EUR
ECB’s Linde Speaks in Barcelona
–
–
Low
9:00
EUR
Italian Unemployment Rate
12.4%
12.3%
Low
10:00
EUR
Eurozone Unemployment Rate
11.5%
11.5%
Medium
10:00
EUR
Eurozone CPI Estimate (YoY)
0.4%
0.3%
High
10:00
EUR
Eurozone CPI – Core (YoY)
0.8%
0.8%
High
Critical Levels
CCY
Supp 3
Supp 2
Supp 1
Pivot Point
Res 1
Res 2
Res 3
EURUSD
1.2418
1.2509
1.2561
1.2600
1.2652
1.2691
1.2782
GBPUSD
1.5825
1.5911
1.5956
1.5997
1.6042
1.6083
1.6169
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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