Talking Points:
NZ Dollar falls as data drives rate cut bets, Yen gains as S&P 500 futures fall
Euro downturn may continue as soft inflation data beckons more ECB easing
Global stimulus expansion hopes may offer support to risk sentiment trends
The New Zealand Dollar underperformed to start the trading week after a string of disappointing data releases fueled RBNZ rate cut speculation. A measure of business confidence from ANZ Bank fell by the most since October. A separate report showed Building Permits fell 8.2 percent, making for the biggest drawdown since September 2014. The Kiwi fell alongside New Zealand bond yields, suggesting the soft results spurred easing bets. Meanwhile, the Yen is trading higher as S&P 500 futures open lower, hinting at a risk-off mood inspiring liquidation of carry trades funded in terms of the perennially low-yielding Japanese unit.
Looking ahead, the preliminary set of February’s Eurozone CPI figures is in focus. The core year-on-year inflation rate is expected to decline to 0.9 percent from the 1.0 percent recorded in January. Last week’s analogous report from Germany – the currency bloc’s largest economy – proved disappointing relative to consensus forecasts. A similar result on the region-wide metric may boost bets on ECB stimulus expansion at next month’s policy meeting, weighing on the Euro.The prospect of an increase in global accommodation my help risk appetite however,offering support to sentiment-linked FX including the Australian Dollar.
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Asia Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
21:30
NZD
ANZ Activity Outlook (FEB)
25.5
–
34.4
21:30
NZD
ANZ Business Confidence (FEB)
7.1
–
23.0
21:45
NZD
Building Permits (MoM) (JAN)
-8.2%
–
2.3%
23:50
JPY
Industrial Production (MoM) (JAN P)
3.7%
3.2%
-1.7%
23:50
JPY
Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN P)
-3.8%
-3.8%
-1.9%
23:50
JPY
Retail Trade (YoY) (JAN)
-0.1%
0.1%
-1.1%
23:50
JPY
Retail Sales (MoM) (JAN)
-1.1%
0.1%
-0.3%
23:50
JPY
Dept. Store, Supermarket Sales (JAN)
1.0%
-0.2%
0.0%
00:00
AUD
Melbourne Institute Inflation (MoM) (FEB)
-0.2%
–
0.4%
00:00
AUD
Melbourne Institute Inflation (YoY) (FEB)
2.1%
–
2.3%
00:01
GBP
Lloyds Business Barometer (FEB)
28
–
45
00:30
AUD
Inventories SA (QoQ) (4Q)
-0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
00:30
AUD
Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (4Q)
-2.8%
-1.8%
1.4%
00:30
AUD
Private Sector Credit (MoM) (JAN)
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
00:30
AUD
Private Sector Credit (YoY) (JAN)
6.5%
6.5%
6.6%
02:00
NZD
Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JAN)
7.6%
–
8.1%
04:00
JPY
Vehicle Production (YoY) (JAN)
-5.8%
–
-2.3%
05:00
JPY
Housing Starts (YoY) (JAN)
0.2%
-0.3%
-1.3%
05:00
JPY
Annualized Housing Starts (JAN)
0.873M
0.870M
0.860M
05:00
JPY
Construction Orders (YoY) (JAN)
-13.8%
–
14.8%
European Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP
PREV
IMPACT
07:00
EUR
German Import Price Index (MoM) (JAN)
-1.0%
-1.2%
Low
07:00
EUR
German Import Price Index (YoY) (JAN)
-3.4%
-3.1%
Low
07:00
EUR
German Retail Sales (MoM) (JAN)
0.3%
0.6%
Low
07:00
EUR
German Retail Sales (YoY) (JAN)
1.8%
1.5%
Low
08:00
CHF
KOF Leading Indicator (FEB)
99.3
100.3
Low
08:00
CHF
Total Sight Deposits (FEB 26)
–
476.2B
Low
08:00
CHF
Domestic Sight Deposits (FEB 26)
–
411.6B
Low
09:30
GBP
Net Consumer Credit (JAN)
1.4B
1.2B
Medium
09:30
GBP
Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (JAN)
3.7B
3.2B
Low
09:30
GBP
Mortgage Approvals (JAN)
74.0K
70.8K
Medium
09:30
GBP
M4 Money Supply (MoM) (JAN)
–
-0.2%
Low
09:30
GBP
M4 Money Supply (YoY) (JAN)
–
0.2%
Low
09:30
GBP
M4 Ex. IOFCs 3M Annualised (JAN)
–
4.0%
Low
10:00
EUR
Eurozone CPI Estimate (YoY) (FEB)
0.0%
0.3%
High
10:00
EUR
Eurozone CPI Core (YoY) (FEB A)
0.9%
1.0%
High
Critical Levels
CCY
Supp 3
Supp 2
Supp 1
Pivot Point
Res 1
Res 2
Res 3
EUR/USD
1.0659
1.0815
1.0875
1.0971
1.1031
1.1127
1.1283
GBP/USD
1.3545
1.3734
1.3802
1.3923
1.3991
1.4112
1.4301
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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Source: Daily fx
