Talking Points:
Euro to be More Sensitive to Positive vs. Negative Eurozone CPI Outcome
Aussie, NZ Dollars Rise Alongside S&P 500 Futures as Risk Aversion Fades
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The preliminary set of September’s Eurozone CPI figures headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The benchmark year-on-year inflation rate is expected to register at 0.3 percent, matching the five-year low recorded in the prior month.
While leading survey suggested that both selling prices and input costs weakened further in September, it ought to be noted that realized inflation-tracking data outcomes have notably improved relative to consensus forecasts since the beginning of the year (according to data from Citigroup). Though readings have tended to fall short of expectations, the margin of disappointment has steadily narrowed since January.
This suggests that the markets may be nearing a point where forecasters are sufficiently acclimated to the extent of Eurozone disinflation. In such an environment, the ability of soft price-growth figures to underperform and thereby inspire Euro selling pressure is diminished. The aggressive build in speculative net-short EUR exposure and the already realized arrival of a significant ECB stimulus effort compounds this.
On balance, this means that the single currency may prove relatively unresponsive to an in-line or even somewhat softer CPI print. On the contrary, a better-than-expected read could trigger liquidation of Euro shorts, fueling a swift corrective bounce.
The Australian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.3 and 0.7 percent respectively against their leading counterparts. The move tracked an overnight advance in S&P 500 index futures, hinting a recovery in risk appetite following the shakeout at the start of the trading week was the catalyst behind price action.
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Asia Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
21:45
NZD
Building Permits (MoM) (AUG)
0.0%
0.0%
-1.7%
23:05
GBP
GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (SEP)
-1
0
1
23:30
AUD
ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf
113.7
–
112.9
23:30
JPY
Jobless Rate (AUG)
3.5%
3.8%
3.8%
23:30
JPY
Job-to-Applicant Ratio (AUG)
1.1
1.1
1.1
23:30
JPY
Household Spending (YoY) (AUG)
-4.7%
-3.6%
-5.9%
23:50
JPY
Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (AUG)
1.9%
0.5%
-0.5%
23:50
JPY
Retail Trade (YoY) (AUG)
1.2%
0.1%
0.6%
23:50
JPY
Large Retailers’ Sales (AUG)
1.6%
0.0%
-0.6%
23:50
JPY
Industrial Production (MoM) (AUG P)
-1.5%
0.2%
0.4%
23:50
JPY
Industrial Production (YoY) (AUG P)
-2.9%
-1.1%
-0.7%
23:50
JPY
Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)
1.9%
0.5%
-0.5%
0:00
NZD
ANZ Activity Outlook (SEP)
37.0
–
36.6
0:00
NZD
ANZ Business Confidence (SEP)
13.4
–
24.4
1:30
AUD
Private Sector Credit (MoM) (AUG)
0.4%
0.5%
0.4%
1:30
AUD
Private Sector Credit (YoY) (AUG)
5.1%
5.2%
5.1%
1:30
JPY
Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (AUG)
1.4%
0.9%
2.4%
1:31
CNY
Leading Index (AUG)
100.09
–
100.20
1:45
CNY
HSBC China Manufacturing PMI (SEP F)
50.2
50.5
50.5
2:00
NZD
Money Supply M3 (YoY) (AUG)
5.2%
–
5.3%
4:00
JPY
Vehicle Production (YoY) (AUG)
-6.7%
–
-1.7%
5:00
JPY
Small Business Confidence (SEP)
47.6
–
47.7
5:00
JPY
Housing Starts (YoY) (AUG)
-12.5%
-14.2%
-14.1%
5:00
JPY
Annualized Housing Starts (AUG)
0.845M
0.837M
0.839M
5:00
JPY
Construction Orders (YoY) (AUG)
8.6%
–
24.4%
European Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP/ACT
PREV
IMPACT
6:00
EUR
German Retail Sales (YoY) (AUG)
0.1% (A)
1.0%
Medium
6:00
EUR
German Retail Sales (MoM) (AUG)
2.5% (A)
-1.1%
Medium
6:00
GBP
Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) (SEP)
-0.2% (A)
0.8%
Low
6:00
GBP
Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (SEP)
9.4% (A)
11.0%
Low
7:00
CHF
KOF Leading Indicator (SEP)
99.0
99.5
Low
7:55
EUR
German Unemployment Change (SEP)
-2K
2K
Medium
7:55
EUR
German Unemployment Rate s.a. (SEP)
6.7%
6.7%
Medium
8:00
EUR
Italian Unemployment Rate (AUG P)
12.6%
12.6%
Low
8:30
GBP
GDP (QoQ) (2Q F)
0.8%
0.8%
Medium
8:30
GBP
GDP (YoY) (2Q F)
3.2%
3.2%
Medium
8:30
GBP
Current Account (£) (2Q)
-18.0B
-18.5B
Low
8:30
GBP
Total Business Investment (QoQ) (2Q F)
–
5.0%
Low
8:30
GBP
Total Business Investment (YoY) (2Q F)
–
10.6%
Low
8:30
GBP
Index of Services (MoM) (JUL)
0.3%
0.3%
Low
8:30
GBP
Index of Services (3M/3M) (JUL)
1.0%
1.0%
Low
8:30
GBP
Lloyds Business Barometer (SEP)
–
47
Low
9:00
EUR
Eurozone Unemployment Rate (AUG)
11.5%
11.5%
Medium
9:00
EUR
Eurozone CPI Estimate (YoY) (SEP)
0.3%
0.4%
High
9:00
EUR
Eurozone CPI – Core (YoY) (SEP A)
0.9%
0.9%
High
Critical Levels
CCY
Supp 3
Supp 2
Supp 1
Pivot Point
Res 1
Res 2
Res 3
EURUSD
1.2586
1.2637
1.2661
1.2688
1.2712
1.2739
1.2790
GBPUSD
1.6125
1.6184
1.6213
1.6243
1.6272
1.6302
1.6361
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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