Commodities may rise if the ECB hints it is preparing to introduce stimulus measures to battle deepening Eurozone recession, buoying risk appetite.

Talking Points

Crude Oil, Gold to Rise if ECB Hints at Stimulus Measures Ahead
Trade Balance, Jobless Claims Headline Quiet US Economic Calendar

Metals are treading water while crude oil is mounting a cautious corrective recovery after yesterday’s aggressive selloff in early European trade. All eyes are on the European Central Bank interest rate decision, with traders pining for growth-supportive measures as the recession in the Eurozone continues to stand as the most significant obstacle to global growth.

Traders’ priced-in expectations as well as economists’ baseline forecasts point away from action this time around however. That will shift the spotlight to commentary from ECB President Mario Draghi at a press conference following the meeting.

Clues about forthcoming stimulus measures may boost risk appetite, sending sentiment-linked crude oil and copper higher. Gold and silver are likewise likely to advance in such a scenario, finding de-facto support as the US Dollar declines amid waning safe-haven demand. Needless to say, a disappointingly hawkish outcome may yield the opposite reaction.

The US economic calendar is relatively tame, with Trade Balance and weekly Jobless Claims figures rounding out a limited docket of event risk. S&P 500 stock index futures are trading flat, pointing to indecision on the risk sentiment front before the ECB announcement crosses the wires.

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $84.44 // -4.27 // -4.81%

Prices are stalling above the 85.00 figure, a barrier reinforced by the 50%Fibonacci expansion at 83.76. Initial resistance lines up at 87.66, the 38.2% Fib, with a break above that targeting a falling trend line set from late September (now at 91.48). Alternatively, a break below 83.76 targets the 80.00 figure and 61.8% level at 79.84.

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1717.75 // +1.75 // +0.10%

Prices put in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern above support at 1693.06, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, hinting a bounce may be ahead. Initial resistance lines up at a falling trend line set from the October 5 swing high (1707.74). A break above that exposes the 1732.33-35.65 area, marked by a horizontal pivot level and the 23.6% Fib. Alternatively, a drop below support targets the 50% level at 1661.32.

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Want to learn more about RSI? Watch this Video

Spot Silver (NY Close): $31.83 // -0.16 // -0.51%

Prices are retesting the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 32.36, with a break above that exposing the 33.51-66 area marked by the 23.6% level and a former range bottom. Near-term support lines up at 31.43, the 50% retracement. A push back beneath that targets the 61.8% Fib at 30.50.

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Want to learn more about RSI? Watch this Video

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.442 // -0.064 // -1.83%

Prices are bouncing from support at 3.462, the 50% Fibonacci expansion. Near-term resistance lines up at 3.550, the 38.2% level, with a break above that targeting the 23.6% Fib at 3.659. Alternatively, a break below 3.462 targets trend line support at 3.395 and the 61.8% level at 3.372.

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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