OPEN
HIGH
LOW
LAST PRICE
CHANGE(%)
USDOLLAR Index
10151.73
10160.96
10133.86
10143.41
-0.10341
EURUSD Curncy
1.3567
1.3594
1.3541
1.3573
0.044225
GBPUSD Curncy
1.5801
1.5875
1.5775
1.5866
0.411366
USDJPY Curncy
91.08
91.42
90.75
91.39
0.34036
AUDUSD Curncy
1.0418
1.0451
1.038
1.044
0.211173
Prices were taken at 20:30 GMT.
The US Non-farm Payrolls report will dominate market price action for tomorrow, and our research shows that price moves may be significant regardless of outcome. The consensus forecast for January’s NFP gain has been raised to 165k from a lower 155k predicted last week. This indicates that investors have gained more confidence in the US economy as personal income and consumption are expanding, and house and job markets gradually improve. In the next session, NFP will weigh on all the pairs related to the greenback based on traders’ intuition. But the big question is – how much and in what way will the report influence short-term moves?
The following table summarizes the Non-farm Payrolls numbers in 2012 and one-minute changes for the Dollar Index after reports were released. The average change for the 11 samples is 7.6 points, which significantly differs from the average one-minute change in 2012—effectively zero. More specifically, the Dollar Index rose by an average of 10 points when the NFP reading exceeded estimations. Even when reports came worse than forecast, the Index still moved up by 4 points on average. That means no matter what the Non-farm Payroll figure will be tomorrow, it may push the US Dollar Index slightly higher.
Non-farm Payrolls in 2012 and the one-minute change for the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index
Date
Time
Survey
Actual
Better-Than- Expected
Total Ticks
Average Open
Average Close
Change
1/6/2012
13:30:00
156K
200K
Y
10
9994.5
9999
4.5
2/3/2012
13:30:00
146K
243K
Y
11
9722.5
9722.5
0
3/9/2012
13:30:00
212K
227K
Y
10
9920
9928
8
4/6/2012
12:30:00
208K
120K
N
12
10035
10035
0
5/4/2012
12:30:00
158K
115K
N
11
9915
9916.5
1.5
6/1/2012
12:30:00
149K
69K
N
10
10281.5
10294
12.5
8/3/2012
12:30:00
101K
163K
Y
11
10049
10065.5
16.5
9/7/2012
13:30:00
128K
96K
N
3
9918.5
9920
1.5
11/2/2012
12:30:00
122K
171K
Y
9
9946.5
9960
13.5
12/7/2012
13:30:00
86K
146K
Y
25
9991
10009
18
(NFP on10/5/2012 is not included due to missing records of one-minute data in Dollar Index)
If the payrolls reading beats expectations, the past year shows we can anticipate a 10 point gain in the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index in the following minute of trading.
Economic Calendar
Date
Time
Currency
Event
Importance
Forecast
Previous
Fri Feb 1
13:30
USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (JAN)
High
155K
155K
13:30
USD Unemployment Rate (JAN)
High
7.8%
7.8%
15:00
USD ISM Manufacturing (JAN)
High
50.5
50.7
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.
Source: Daily fx
