Talking Points:
– USDOLLAR Eyes Former Support; Non-Farm Payrolls to Climb 219K
– EUR/USD Coming Up Against Former Support Ahead of ECB Rate Decision
– USD/CAD Fails to Break Out Despite Weak Canada 1Q GDP; BoC Meeting in Focus

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) may continue to work its way back towards former resistance (10,470) ahead of the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report as the bearish break on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) gathers pace.

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10490.82

10506.51

10486

-0.14

70.51%

Indeed, the recent weakness in the dollar may turn into a larger decline as the reserve currency carves a lower-high in May, but a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) paired with another 200+K rise in U.S. NFPs may spur a material shift in the technical outlook should the key event risks deviate from market expectations.

With that said, we will retain a prudent approach going into June as we’ll be watch the monthly opening range take shape, and we may see a sharp rise in market volatility throughout the summer months amid the prospects for a more material shift in the policy outlook.

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USDOLLAR Daily

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Former Resistance (10,470) in Focus as Bearish RSI Break Gathers Pace
Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
Interim Support: 10,354 to 10,375 (50.0 retracement)

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Fed’s Sandra Pianalto Speaks on U.S. Economy

12:30

Personal Income (APR)