Barclays Capital FX Strategy Research continues to see a broadly flat to mild downward trajectory for the AUDUSD beyond the short-term gyrations mainly on the back of pricing an increasing downside risk for the iron ore price in the immediate term along with the negative impact from China’s real estate slowdown.
"The drag on the AUD will, in part, be driven by China’s economic rebalancing away from investment and curbs on property speculation.
With regards to China and commodities, our Commodities research team expect increasing downside risk for the iron ore price in the immediate term as the bulk metal is the most vulnerable to the poor results in China’s real estate and macroeconomic data .
We see tighter housing measures in H2, given that the PBoC has, in its latest Q2 Monetary Policy Report (released 11 August 2017), said that it will limit credit flows to speculative housing purchases. We see China’s real estate slowdown weighing on Australia’s terms of trade and the AUD," Barclays argues.
Source: Barclays ResearchOriginal Article
